What is the recidivism rate in the U.S.?
The most-cited national study followed people released from state prisons across 30 states. It found that 44% were arrested again within their first year of release, 68% within three years, and 83% within nine years.[1] Recidivism is usually measured three ways — rearrest, reconviction, and reincarceration — and rearrest produces the highest numbers because it counts any new arrest, whether or not it leads to a conviction.
How many people are behind bars?
Roughly 1.2 million people were held in state and federal prisons at the end of 2022,[2] and local jails booked close to 7 million admissions over the course of that year.[5] On top of incarceration, about 1 in 55 U.S. adults — nearly 3.8 million people — was on probation or parole in 2021.[4]
Work after release
Finding a job is one of the strongest predictors of staying out of prison — and one of the hardest steps. Formerly incarcerated people face an unemployment rate of around 27%, higher than the general U.S. unemployment rate at any point in recorded history, including the Great Depression.[3]
Why the numbers vary so much
Recidivism figures differ between studies because of three choices: the measure (rearrest vs. reconviction vs. return to prison), the follow-up window (one year vs. nine years), and the group studied (all releases vs. a specific offense or state). When comparing two statistics, check those three things first — a "25% recidivism rate" and an "80% recidivism rate" can both be accurate under different definitions.[1]
Sources
- [1] Bureau of Justice Statistics — Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 States in 2005 (2018)
- [2] Bureau of Justice Statistics — Prisoners in 2022 (2023)
- [3] Prison Policy Initiative — Out of Prison & Out of Work (2018)
- [4] The Pew Charitable Trusts — One in 55 U.S. Adults Was on Probation or Parole (2023)
- [5] Bureau of Justice Statistics — Jail Inmates in 2022 (2023)